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Morgan Stanley: There is still a lot of downside for commodities, the least promising is iron ore

June 24, 2021
Morgan Stanley said that from the perspective of the six-month time dimension, the Fed`s hawkish tendencies and China`s efforts to control commodity price increases have caused base metal prices to fall to more sustainable levels, but they expects commodities to return. There is more space for downside.

Morgan Stanley analyst Susan Bates wrote in the third-quarter outlook report that by 2022, the supply recovery is expected to meet normalized demand levels, and most markets will decline.

The agency believes that aluminum is the "most defensive" metal because of the continuous impact of transportation problems caused by high freight rates, and structural changes will also limit excessive supply growth. Price prediction: US$2,315 in the third quarter and US$2,337 in the fourth quarter; the spot is about US$2,427.

According to the report, supply problems and investors' focus on long-term demand will bring short-term support to copper. However, from the perspective of 1-2 years, as the market exceeds demand, the downside risk of copper prices will increase. Price prediction: US$9,039 in the third quarter and US$9,149 in the fourth quarter; the spot is about US$9,929.50.

Morgan Stanley is least optimistic about iron ore, and China's steel production will decrease throughout the second half of the year and beyond. Price forecast: US$200 in the third quarter, US$160 in the fourth quarter; spot about US$202.80.
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